Dublin Midwest is an intriguing new creature, our 42nd constituency.
It boasts a fascinating cast of characters - the spurned veteran councillor Fianna Fáil deselected and the hungry senator who believes her time has come - whose fortunes have been touched in no small way by the Quarryvale controversy.
It also includes the long serving TD who will not now get the nomination and the high profile Tánaiste rattled by her recent rocky patch who can now take nothing for granted.
When the constituency boundaries were re drawn to create this new political entity, this three seater stretching between the Liffey and the Naas Road had a total electorate of 49,845.
However, the rate of new housing developments - particularly in the Lucan area - is such that this figure is creeping up by the month.
It takes in a substantial chunk of the old Dublin West constituency with a slice shaved off Dublin South West. On a 60% turnout, the likely quota would be 7,470.
The election will be won or lost in the two main urban centres of Clondalkin and Lucan. Over half the electorate are concentrated in the Clondalkin and Newcastle areas with a further 35% of the vote in Lucan. Rathcoole, Saggart and Brittas account for just 10% of the constituency’s electorate between them.
Dublin Midwest is a quirky constituency. All forms of human life with widely varying needs live cheek by jowl here. From the pockets of grim disadvantage in Clondalkin and Neilstown, to the shiny new legoland estates of Lucan and onward to the rural hinterland of Newcastle and Rathcoole.
Their hopes and fears are varied. Unemployment used to be the main issue. But with City West and the new business park opening in Grangecastle, education and re skilling are the new buzzwords.
Traffic and public transport are always on the agenda. The development of Baldonnel Airport and the proposed sports stadia are divisive issues. Housing and childcare also feature.
Tánaiste Mary Harney made an early decision to make the leap from Dublin Southwest to this new constituency. It is universally regarded as a smart move. It means she retains her former bailiwicks of Newcastle and Clondalkin, where she grew up and went to school.
Notwithstanding recent traumas, Progressive Democrat strategists are quietly confident about her chances. The PDs have something in Dublin Midwest that they have in few other constituencies - a relatively vibrant branch network in all the main urban centres. An active party machine is concentrating its efforts in Lucan, where Ms Harney must make an impact if she is to retain her seat.
There should also be a Fianna Fáil seat in the constituency, although the party has suffered its fair share of strife here. Liam Lawlor was the sitting TD but his trials and tribulations with the Flood Tribunal mean that he won’t be flying the party flag next time out.
The other long standing Fianna Fáil representative in the area, Councillor Colm McGrath, was deselected by the party hierarchy before the last local elections when it emerged he had told the Flood Tribunal that he received £30,000 from developer Owen O’Callaghan.
Mr McGrath, protesting loudly that he had been unfairly shafted by Fianna Fáil head honchos, ran as an Independent and comfortably regained his seat with almost 13% of the vote. He has been keeping a low profile of late after reports that he is the greedy “Mr Insatiable” in Frank Dunlop’s evidence to the tribunal. In the last local elections, John Curran did well to gain a seat with almost 15 % of the vote on his first outing for Fianna Fáil. Party chiefs were considering a two candidate strategy in the constituency and up until relatively recently Mr Lawlor and Mr Curran were considered the most likely ticket. With Mr Lawlor in Lucan and Mr Curran in Clondalkin, the geography would have been right. But the fall out from the Flood Tribunal revelations demands a radical rethink. The party strategists say they have not thought about who the second candidate will be at this point.
For years Fine Gael Senator Therese Ridge’s base has been split in two between Dublin West and Dublin South West. Ms Ridge has run in both, on each occasion as a sweeper candidate to ensure party colleagues did the business.
Finally, with Clondalkin returned to one constituency, Ms Ridge believed her time has come.
“I’ve been the political bridesmaid more than once - I wouldn’t mind finally being the bride,” she says.
She held her seat in the Clondalkin ward in the local elections with almost 18% of the vote and was hoping to be given a clear run at a seat by party HQ.
However, she was reckoning without Austin Currie who has rained on her parade by announcing that he intends to follow his Lucan base out of Dublin West and set up shop in the new constituency.
This ends Mr Ridge’s dream of a solo strategy, and opens up the possibility that she may be reduced to catching the electoral bridal bouquet yet again.
She is also believed to feature in Mr Dunlop’s hit list of councillors he attempted to bribe in return for their vote on Quarryvale. However, the Fine Gael inquiry has cleared her of wrong doing.
With star player Pat Rabbitte refusing to budge from his perch in Dublin Southwest, Labour has yet to decide on a candidate here. The party has two councillors in the area. Local young solicitor Joanna Tuffy came second in the local elections in the Palmerstown/Lucan ward garnering 1,125 votes, while Robert Dowds made a breakthrough in the local poll in Clondalkin.
With seven councillors in South Dublin County Council - more than twice Fine Gael’s representation - Labour says it is in a strong position to get a quota in Midwest. However, it would appear that the party will have its work cut out make a gain in this three seater.
Also hoping to be in with a shot at a seat is the Green Party.
Paul Gogarty made a remarkable comeback in the local elections after bombing in the 1997 general election. He’s been working very hard in the constituency - even producing a monthly newsletter - and his efforts have persuaded party chiefs that their early decision not to run a candidate in this constituency may have been hasty. Word has it that a private poll placed him in fourth position in the race for a seat in this new constituency.
A three seater in a constituency with no pedigree is a tough one to call.

© Irish Examiner, 2000

2/2/03